13–15 November 2017
Oxford Martin School, 34 Broad Street, Oxford
This event will have a focus on the practical application of DMDU methodologies, and details of the workshop programme have now been released.
The workshop will be preceded by a training day on DMDU methodologies on 13 November 2017. Dinner on the evening of 14 November will be held in Oxford’s historic Museum of Natural History.
- DMDU 2017 workshop theme – DMDU across multiple scales
- Workshop programme
- DMDU Society international training day – 13 November 2017
- International Advisory Committee
- DMDU (external link)
DMDU 2017 workshop theme: dealing with deep uncertainty in decision making across multiple scales
This year’s workshop will tackle the challenges of decision making at many different scales from the perspective of deep uncertainty. The theme of multiple scales embraces spatial scales, temporal scales and the governance issues that they create.
Challenges for decision making under deep uncertainty can arise from the interaction between spatial scales including:
- Global: including issues of climate change mitigation, resource exploitation, finance and security
- National: including macro-economics, infrastructure investment, innovation, social policy and civil protection
- Regional and catchment scale: including water resources management and regional economic development
- City-scale: including adaptation to climate change, local energy systems, and transportation and mobility.
Challenges for decision making under deep uncertainty can also arise from interaction between temporal scales including:
- Short-term and real-time problems, where information is scarce and time for decision making is constrained.
- Longer-term policy, planning and investment problems, whose success is contingent upon future changes that are very hard to predict.
DMDU Society international training day
13 November 2017, Oxford
This training session will provide guidance for those who wish to apply DMDU tools to the analytical problems they face. But just as importantly, the agenda also seeks to help people working with the output of DMDU tools, so that they might derive better understanding and value in applying these results.
For people attending both the training day and the workshop, the training will support their more engaged workshop participation.
For participants who will not be attending the subsequent workshop, it will provide an overview of the developing DMDU field with exposure to core concepts, current discourse and leading tools and applications.
The workshop will give equal weight to overview presentations, hands-on demonstrations and plenary discussion among the participants and with leading DMDU practitioners.
Lunch and tea/coffee provided.
|09:30||DMDU and overview of the day
“Who are we?” stand-up introduction exercise
“What is deep uncertainty and what does it mean in practice?”
|11:15||Generalised framework for DMDU methods:
A guide for the rest of the day
|13:15||Introductory demos and applications (pdf, 1.6 MB)|
Decision-making under Deep Uncertainty: From Theory to Practice (Springer Verlag, forthcoming)
|16:30||Plenary panel and Q&A
What is in the DMDU analyst’s tool kit?
Workshop day 1: 14 November 2017
|09:30||Welcome & introduction
Jim Hall, University of Oxford
Robert Lempert, Director, RAND Corporation & Jan Kwakkel, Delft University
|09:40||Global scale keynote address:
|10:10||Panel discussion including:
|11:10||Problem-solving parallel interactive sessions|
The purpose of this session is to seek new ways of addressing difficult defence and security problems, characterised by deep uncertainty, by engaging relevant academics/academic networks, industry and allies. We intend to do this though gaining insights that can shape our own internal work, joint/collaborative working with external partners, supporting UK Research Council applications and direct funding of external exploratory work. We are interested in:
The purpose of this session is to share lessons about the real-life application of tools for decision making under deep uncertainty and implementation of those decisions as the conditions change over time.
The session will focus on the practical application of DMDU methodologies and implementation issues such as monitoring. It will present 3-4 practice examples and provide an interactive session for participants to discuss issues around the use of DMDU tools in real life decision settings and the implementation issues that arise following decisions being made
|12:30||Lunch and posters – there are two venues for lunch and posters, the Oxford Martin School and nearby Hertford College|
|14:00||Perspectives from national and regional scales:
|14:30||Perspectives from national and regional scales (continued):
|16:30||Tools and models demonstration showcase – five-minute presentations to introduce six tools
|17:45||Close of workshop day 1|
|18:30–20:30||Reception and buffet dinner at the Oxford Museum of Natural History|
Workshop day 2: 15 November 2017
|09:30||City-scale keynote address:
|10:00||Panel discussion including:
|10:20||Problem-solving session – city scale
|Global and regional scales
|National and city scales
|Local and individual scales
|13:20||Lunch and posters – there are two venues for lunch and posters, the Oxford Martin School and nearby Hertford College|
|14:45||Feedback from parallel sessions|
|15:15||Insights from the cutting edge of DMDU
Questions & discussion
|16:45||Reflections on workshop and plans for 2018
Jim Hall, University of Oxford
Robert Lempert, Director, RAND Corporation & Dr ir Jan Kwakkel, Delft University